| On 4 weeks ago

The COVID-19 Conundrum: Are Testing and Reporting, the main reason behind a significant rise and fall in the COVID cases in recent time?

By Alquamah Nasir

Acquiring data is as important as the data itself is said Aviv Bergman, a computational biologist.

After the Nobel prize winner named Agre pointed out that the fluctuations in the COVID charts are associated with the day of the week, so we can say that these fluctuations may occur depending on what day it is.

Keeping in mind what Agre said, a team of the researchers employed a technique called power spectrum analysis, which is a technique that identifies the power of each frequency component in the wave. And this methodology can be used to find which variable in the COVID data is making these fluctuations.

Research findings

The research results showed a seven days cycle in the Rise and Fall of cases. Then they identified that on weekdays these fluctuations are the most.
Some patients also reported that they got low-quality care on weekdays. We can also see that social gatherings are common on weekdays. But the research shows that social gathering on weekdays might not be a factor for fluctuation in the chart as it takes 4 to 14 days for symptoms to show.

Causes of these fluctuations

One of the major reasons that could cause these fluctuations is that there is a significant delay in reporting of deaths, as death is not reported exactly on the day of death and is often delayed. These discrepancies in reporting the death may explain the oscillation found in the data. While some researchers believe that weekly social interaction may influence the trends, but these factors do not significantly contribute to the repeated patterns.

Discrepancies in the test

According to a report, the false-negative rate is 38% of a patient displaying symptoms of the virus. Some hospitals reported that a lack of instrument, reagent, and supplies shortages prevented them from testing all the people with the symptoms. Lauren Kucirka from Johns Hopkins University says that a negative test does not guarantee that the person is not infected with the virus. If that person is infected with the virus he can easily spread it creating a significant rise and fall in the data.

Alquamah Nasir